FORT COLLINS, CO - A new
U.S. Forest Service report predicts that most of the Southwest, parts of
California and the southern and central Great Plains will be the most
vulnerable areas in the nation to water shortages during the next 60 years.
Climate change will substantially increase water demand and cause decreases in
water supply in those regions of the United States, even as cities, farms and
thermoelectric facilities become more efficient in their water usage.
Scientists from the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station,
Colorado State University and Princeton University used global climate models
along with socio-economic scenarios to determine future water supply and demand,
and the likelihood of future water shortages.
The research team, led by Tom Brown, Research Economist at the Rocky Mountain
Research Station, and Jorge A. Ramirez of Colorado State University, attempted
to show where and to what extent water shortages would occur if populations
grew and climates changed-but water-allocation rules, infrastructure, laws and
use trends remained as they are currently. The report shows where adaptation
measures will be most needed.
Brown stated that "we were surprised to find that climate change is likely
to have a much greater effect on future water demands than population growth.
The combined effects of climate change on water supply and demand could lead to
serious water shortages in some regions."
The report, "Vulnerability of U.S. Water Supply to Shortage: A Technical
Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment," affirmed that
of 98 river basin assessments across the U.S., the arid and semi-arid regions
of the nation are the most vulnerable areas to future water shortages. Although
the detailed results differ depending on which scenario is simulated and which
climate model is used, the general finding of increasing and substantial
vulnerability in the Southwest holds true in all cases.
To download or read the report online, go to: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/42363. To
request a printed copy, call (970) 498-1392, or email Richard Schneider at rschneider@fs.fed.us and reference RMRS-GTR-295.
The Rocky Mountain Research Station is one of seven regional units that make up
the U.S. Forest Service Research and Development organization - the most
extensive natural resources research organization in the world. The Station
maintains 12 field laboratories throughout a 12-state territory encompassing
the Great Basin, Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and parts of the Great Plains, and
administers and conducts research on 14 experimental forests, ranges, and
watersheds, while maintaining long-term databases for these areas. RMRS
research is broken into seven science program areas that serve the Forest
Service as well as other federal and state agencies, international
organizations, private groups and individuals. To find out more about the RMRS
go to www.fs.fed.us/rmrs. You can also follow us on
Twitter at www.twitter.com/usfs_rmrs.
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Contact:
Rick Fletcher
Public Affairs Specialist
Office: 970.498.1372
rfletcher@fs.fed.us
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