Item 1
For now, Donald Trump continues to be the "Teflon Don" of the 2016 presidential race, with very early indicators showing his frontrunner status is still intact after the first GOP debate and his ensuing battle with Fox News host Megyn Kelly.
But just how much does it matter?
Early leads in presidential primary polls have been red herrings when it comes to predicting the long-term success of a campaign in recent elections.
Then Texas Gov. Rick Perry had a commanding 15-point lead in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released almost exactly four years ago. Perry's star faded precipitously after that, and he has since launched a second White House bid that has already run into problems. NBC News confirmed Monday that Perry had recently suspended pay for campaign staff amidst fundraising troubles.
The August 2011 poll also ranked former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who went on to win 11 states during the 2012 GOP primaries, at a meager three percent. Recent polls show Santorum similarly near the bottom of the pack in his second run.
Going back eight years ago, an early September 2007 NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll had former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the GOP presidential field at 32 percent, followed by former Tennessee senator turned actor Fred Thompson at 26 percent.
"Being the early leader directs all the press attention to you, which can be a good thing, or can be a very bad thing if you're not ready for it," said a Republican strategist who advised Thompson's campaign in 2008. "Thompson was unready for a lot of the national press attention and unwilling to do the work that turned potential support into actual votes."
It's not just the early leaders who are susceptible to dramatic downfalls because of a lack of preparedness. Republican businessman Herman Cain shot to the top of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in October 2011. Sexual harassment allegations and an alleged affair ended his campaign just two months later.
And it's a trend that is not just confined to Republicans. The September poll had New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 44 percent to 23 percent.
That political history has not been lost on the low-polling candidates, who have used them to defend their standing in the race.
"Eight years ago, Rudy Giuliani was leading the pack and everyone was writing John McCain's political obituary," Santorum communications director Matt Beynon said after the 2012 Iowa caucus winner was left out of the prime-time debate. "National polls are meaningless in August."
John Sides, an associate professor at George Washington University, argues thatearly polling rarely is useful when trying to predict a nominee. His research has found that poll respondents have little likelihood of correctly choosing election outcomes more than 300 days before Election Day.
Item 2
For now, Donald Trump continues to be the "Teflon Don" of the 2016 presidential race, with very early indicators showing his frontrunner status is still intact after the first GOP debate and his ensuing battle with Fox News host Megyn Kelly.
But just how much does it matter?
Early leads in presidential primary polls have been red herrings when it comes to predicting the long-term success of a campaign in recent elections.
Then Texas Gov. Rick Perry had a commanding 15-point lead in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released almost exactly four years ago. Perry's star faded precipitously after that, and he has since launched a second White House bid that has already run into problems. NBC News confirmed Monday that Perry had recently suspended pay for campaign staff amidst fundraising troubles.
The August 2011 poll also ranked former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who went on to win 11 states during the 2012 GOP primaries, at a meager three percent. Recent polls show Santorum similarly near the bottom of the pack in his second run.
Going back eight years ago, an early September 2007 NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll had former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the GOP presidential field at 32 percent, followed by former Tennessee senator turned actor Fred Thompson at 26 percent.
"Being the early leader directs all the press attention to you, which can be a good thing, or can be a very bad thing if you're not ready for it," said a Republican strategist who advised Thompson's campaign in 2008. "Thompson was unready for a lot of the national press attention and unwilling to do the work that turned potential support into actual votes."
It's not just the early leaders who are susceptible to dramatic downfalls because of a lack of preparedness. Republican businessman Herman Cain shot to the top of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in October 2011. Sexual harassment allegations and an alleged affair ended his campaign just two months later.
And it's a trend that is not just confined to Republicans. The September poll had New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 44 percent to 23 percent.
That political history has not been lost on the low-polling candidates, who have used them to defend their standing in the race.
"Eight years ago, Rudy Giuliani was leading the pack and everyone was writing John McCain's political obituary," Santorum communications director Matt Beynon said after the 2012 Iowa caucus winner was left out of the prime-time debate. "National polls are meaningless in August."
John Sides, an associate professor at George Washington University, argues thatearly polling rarely is useful when trying to predict a nominee. His research has found that poll respondents have little likelihood of correctly choosing election outcomes more than 300 days before Election Day.
Item 3
For now, Donald Trump continues to be the "Teflon Don" of the 2016 presidential race, with very early indicators showing his frontrunner status is still intact after the first GOP debate and his ensuing battle with Fox News host Megyn Kelly.
But just how much does it matter?
Early leads in presidential primary polls have been red herrings when it comes to predicting the long-term success of a campaign in recent elections.
Then Texas Gov. Rick Perry had a commanding 15-point lead in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released almost exactly four years ago. Perry's star faded precipitously after that, and he has since launched a second White House bid that has already run into problems. NBC News confirmed Monday that Perry had recently suspended pay for campaign staff amidst fundraising troubles.
The August 2011 poll also ranked former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who went on to win 11 states during the 2012 GOP primaries, at a meager three percent. Recent polls show Santorum similarly near the bottom of the pack in his second run.
Going back eight years ago, an early September 2007 NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll had former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the GOP presidential field at 32 percent, followed by former Tennessee senator turned actor Fred Thompson at 26 percent.
"Being the early leader directs all the press attention to you, which can be a good thing, or can be a very bad thing if you're not ready for it," said a Republican strategist who advised Thompson's campaign in 2008. "Thompson was unready for a lot of the national press attention and unwilling to do the work that turned potential support into actual votes."
It's not just the early leaders who are susceptible to dramatic downfalls because of a lack of preparedness. Republican businessman Herman Cain shot to the top of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in October 2011. Sexual harassment allegations and an alleged affair ended his campaign just two months later.
And it's a trend that is not just confined to Republicans. The September poll had New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 44 percent to 23 percent.
That political history has not been lost on the low-polling candidates, who have used them to defend their standing in the race.
"Eight years ago, Rudy Giuliani was leading the pack and everyone was writing John McCain's political obituary," Santorum communications director Matt Beynon said after the 2012 Iowa caucus winner was left out of the prime-time debate. "National polls are meaningless in August."
John Sides, an associate professor at George Washington University, argues thatearly polling rarely is useful when trying to predict a nominee. His research has found that poll respondents have little likelihood of correctly choosing election outcomes more than 300 days before Election Day.
Item 4
For now, Donald Trump continues to be the "Teflon Don" of the 2016 presidential race, with very early indicators showing his frontrunner status is still intact after the first GOP debate and his ensuing battle with Fox News host Megyn Kelly.
But just how much does it matter?
Early leads in presidential primary polls have been red herrings when it comes to predicting the long-term success of a campaign in recent elections.
Then Texas Gov. Rick Perry had a commanding 15-point lead in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released almost exactly four years ago. Perry's star faded precipitously after that, and he has since launched a second White House bid that has already run into problems. NBC News confirmed Monday that Perry had recently suspended pay for campaign staff amidst fundraising troubles.
The August 2011 poll also ranked former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who went on to win 11 states during the 2012 GOP primaries, at a meager three percent. Recent polls show Santorum similarly near the bottom of the pack in his second run.
Going back eight years ago, an early September 2007 NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll had former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the GOP presidential field at 32 percent, followed by former Tennessee senator turned actor Fred Thompson at 26 percent.
"Being the early leader directs all the press attention to you, which can be a good thing, or can be a very bad thing if you're not ready for it," said a Republican strategist who advised Thompson's campaign in 2008. "Thompson was unready for a lot of the national press attention and unwilling to do the work that turned potential support into actual votes."
It's not just the early leaders who are susceptible to dramatic downfalls because of a lack of preparedness. Republican businessman Herman Cain shot to the top of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in October 2011. Sexual harassment allegations and an alleged affair ended his campaign just two months later.
And it's a trend that is not just confined to Republicans. The September poll had New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 44 percent to 23 percent.
That political history has not been lost on the low-polling candidates, who have used them to defend their standing in the race.
"Eight years ago, Rudy Giuliani was leading the pack and everyone was writing John McCain's political obituary," Santorum communications director Matt Beynon said after the 2012 Iowa caucus winner was left out of the prime-time debate. "National polls are meaningless in August."
John Sides, an associate professor at George Washington University, argues thatearly polling rarely is useful when trying to predict a nominee. His research has found that poll respondents have little likelihood of correctly choosing election outcomes more than 300 days before Election Day.