Monday, July 28, 2008 9:35 PM
A surprising poll released Monday confirms Sen. Barack Obama's worst nightmare: he actually lost ground to Sen. John McCain after a global trip meant to buck up his sagging credentials in foreign and military policy.
The USA Today/Gallup poll has McCain leading Obama by four points, 49 percent to Obama's 45 percent, among likely voters.
Just last month, the same poll had McCain trailing by six points to the neophyte U.S. senator.
Among registered voters, McCain was just three points behind Obama -- a statistical dead heat.
The USA Today/Gallup poll is consistent with the Rasmussen tracking poll, which also shows Obama ahead by just three percentage points -- again a statistical tie.
The polls suggest that Obama's efforts to act like a president abroad -- even though he has yet to be elected -- may have backfired among American voters.
In Berlin, Obama spoke to 200,000 cheering Germans. The Democratic candidate used the foreign platform to express the view that he was a "fellow citizen of the world" and apologized for America's imperfections.
Later, he decided not to visit wounded American soldiers at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in southern Germany. When the Pentagon informed Obama's campaign that the hospital would be closed to the press and campaign staff -- only the senator and his official staff would be allowed in -- Obama decided to cancel the event.
McCain has been quick to seize on Obama's ill-advised decision to cancel the humanitarian visit to the hospital.
A McCain television commercial released on the Internet this past weekend chided Obama for his callous act.
"And now, he made time to go to the gym, but canceled a visit with wounded troops,[/b]â€
Obama's Trip Backfires; McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead in USA
Re: Obama's Trip Backfires; McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead in
Hrvestuff, I realize you weren't able to take statistics given the fact that you only got as far as the 4th grade, so let me explain how all this fancy "cipherin' stuff" works.
Most polls are based on a 95% confidence interval. This means that 5% of polls (or 1 out of 20) will be wrong. How then (you ask), does one interpret polls that can be wrong at a predictable rate? Well, you look at a bunch of polls at the same time.
Here's a web page that does that:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... html#polls
Well gee whiz!!
When you look at ALL the polls you find that Barack Obama is 44-1-1 in national polls since the beginning of May. Hmm, I guess the textbooks are right, you get approximately 2 incorrect polls out of every 40.
President Obama. I like the sound of that. Damn it's good to be liberal nowadays.
Most polls are based on a 95% confidence interval. This means that 5% of polls (or 1 out of 20) will be wrong. How then (you ask), does one interpret polls that can be wrong at a predictable rate? Well, you look at a bunch of polls at the same time.
Here's a web page that does that:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... html#polls
Well gee whiz!!
When you look at ALL the polls you find that Barack Obama is 44-1-1 in national polls since the beginning of May. Hmm, I guess the textbooks are right, you get approximately 2 incorrect polls out of every 40.President Obama. I like the sound of that. Damn it's good to be liberal nowadays.
Re: Obama's Trip Backfires; McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead in
Go back to school Jeff. That is not how statistics work. The confidence interval is based on the sample size. Flip a coin 10 times and count how many heads and how many tails. Chances are that it will not be 5 and 5, so the confidence interval would be very low. Now flip the coin 100 times, 1000 times, 10000 times. The higher the sample size the higher the confidence in the result.Most polls are based on a 95% confidence interval. This means that 5% of polls (or 1 out of 20) will be wrong. How then (you ask), does one interpret polls that can be wrong at a predictable rate? Well, you look at a bunch of polls at the same time.
A 95% confidence interval basically means that the results are correct within 5% either way. This is why a 3 or 4 point lead by either candidate is insignificant. It does not mean that the pole is wrong 5% of the time, it could be wrong EVERY time or it could be correct EVERY time.
We will only have 100% confidence on election day.
CHANGE is not a destination, and HOPE is not a strategy!
Re: Obama's Trip Backfires; McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead in
Way to go Jeff – you finely are calling yourself a Liberal. It took a while but now you are standing on your own two feet.
The real point is Juan McCain is a terrible candidate for President and this election cycle should be a runway for the Democrat with President Bush lowest rating of 14%. This should be a slam-dunk for the Democrats and Obama.
But what you are finding is that Sen. Obama can’t put the coup de vile to McCain, no matter how messes up’ed McCain run his campaign. Just remember that the hardcore Conservative (The bible-thumping, anti-abortion extremists type), Woman over 40 (Hillary’s Girls) and White Union Men have not signed up yet! And you want to brag about 4 points – bud, there is a + or – 3 points on each poll.
Just wait until the debates start and there is no teleprompter, Obama will be in Juan’s stomping grounds (20 years plus of mendacious). You like numbers (quoting polls and all) you do know that 70% of the country wants to drill for oil and Obama does not – Juan has pick the side of the country. 85% of the country wants illegal immigration stopped both Juan and Obama don’t want it as an issue. You watch old Juan become John for a few points! Wait until the VP’s are picked – Obama will want someone he can control and not dispute his liberal views. Juan will pick someone to draw the Conservative in.
You need to sit down and ask yourself a few questions, like where is Obama getting all his money? What does he stand for? Tell me why I should vote for him? Come back on here and tell us the answers to those questions. Don’t give me an answer like FishaHallic did “I like Obama because he is NOT Bush or a republican or a conservativeâ€
The real point is Juan McCain is a terrible candidate for President and this election cycle should be a runway for the Democrat with President Bush lowest rating of 14%. This should be a slam-dunk for the Democrats and Obama.
But what you are finding is that Sen. Obama can’t put the coup de vile to McCain, no matter how messes up’ed McCain run his campaign. Just remember that the hardcore Conservative (The bible-thumping, anti-abortion extremists type), Woman over 40 (Hillary’s Girls) and White Union Men have not signed up yet! And you want to brag about 4 points – bud, there is a + or – 3 points on each poll.
Just wait until the debates start and there is no teleprompter, Obama will be in Juan’s stomping grounds (20 years plus of mendacious). You like numbers (quoting polls and all) you do know that 70% of the country wants to drill for oil and Obama does not – Juan has pick the side of the country. 85% of the country wants illegal immigration stopped both Juan and Obama don’t want it as an issue. You watch old Juan become John for a few points! Wait until the VP’s are picked – Obama will want someone he can control and not dispute his liberal views. Juan will pick someone to draw the Conservative in.
You need to sit down and ask yourself a few questions, like where is Obama getting all his money? What does he stand for? Tell me why I should vote for him? Come back on here and tell us the answers to those questions. Don’t give me an answer like FishaHallic did “I like Obama because he is NOT Bush or a republican or a conservativeâ€
Re: Obama's Trip Backfires; McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead in
Sorry, to burst your bubble Getalife but you're wrong. Your mistake lies in not understanding the difference between the concepts of "confidence interval" and "margin of error".Go back to school Jeff. That is not how statistics work. The confidence interval is based on the sample size. Flip a coin 10 times and count how many heads and how many tails. Chances are that it will not be 5 and 5, so the confidence interval would be very low. Now flip the coin 100 times, 1000 times, 10000 times. The higher the sample size the higher the confidence in the result.
A 95% confidence interval basically means that the results are correct within 5% either way. This is why a 3 or 4 point lead by either candidate is insignificant. It does not mean that the pole is wrong 5% of the time, it could be wrong EVERY time or it could be correct EVERY time.
The margin of error of a poll is the range of values that the true population (what's being estimated) actually lies within. For instance, if a poll found that Obama is ahead by 3 points over McCain and the MARGIN OF ERROR is 3 points, then the difference is within the margin of error of that poll. However, the margin of error itself is based on a CONFIDENCE INTERVAL which is typically set as 95%. Going back to my previous example, if there is a 3 point margin of error based on a 95% confidence interval, that means that there is a 95% liklihood that the true population scores will fall within the 3 point margin of error.
If there is a 6 point margin of error, then there is a 95% chance that the true population falls within 6 points of the poll numbers.
Since most polls utilize a 95% confidence interval, they will be wrong 5% of the time. Being "wrong" means that the population values fall outside of the stated margin of error of the poll.
While the margin of error is based on the sample size as well as the variability of the sample, the confidence interval is set ahead of time by the person conducting the study. The confidence interval in essence recognizes that no poll can be 100% accurate and is a tradeoff where the pollster is willing to be wrong 5% of the time in order to keep the margin of error within a reasonable amount. The same poll can be evaluated based on a 99% or 99.9% confidence interval, but the result would produce such a huge margin of error that the poll would be basically meaningless.
Re: Obama's Trip Backfires; McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead in
Okay Marty, I'll play along.
The second reason why the polls are still close is that McCain was the only legitimate Republican candidate that actually does a good job courting Independents. He's attractive to Independents for the same reasons you conservatives hate him (but will still vote for him). He's not a pawn of the religious right, he's somewhat pro environment, he doesn't come off as bigoted and racist on the social issues like most Republicans do and probably most important, he's been a thorn in the side of the Bush Republicans for most of recent history.
The fact of the matter is that although you conservatives dislike McCain, he's the only Republican candidate that would have been able to keep this thing close. During the primaries, he was clearly my favorite of the Republican candidates and for the same reason he was the one I feared the most.
That's not to say I think McCain will win. However, all this is clearly enough to keep it a 5 point race all the way to the end.
You obviously haven't been paying attention. Maybe you'd better look back at my previous posts to see if I've been hiding my pride at being a liberal.Way to go Jeff – you finely are calling yourself a Liberal. It took a while but now you are standing on your own two feet.
I've heard that one before, that the country is so f$#kd-up that Obama should be up by 20 points. That's wrong for two reasons. First of all, the votes from about 80% of the electorate are set in stone no matter who is nominated and what the state of the country is. The only evidence I need to provide for that point are you and all the other conservatives who post on this forum. You've all continually bitched and moaned for months about how unhappy you are with your choice of McCain. So.... are you going to vote for Obama -- hell no. On a similar note, you can't be happy with the state of the country as it is. $4 a gallon gas, a housing market in shambles, an economy in recession, and the prices of most basic essentials going through the roof. So with all this, you have a choice to go with essentially the same Bush policies that got us into this mess or to go with something different. Anyone with a lick of common sense would go with something different. So... are you going to vote for Obama -- hell no. So that's my first point, that Republicans will nearly always vote for the Republican and Democrats will nearly always vote for the Democrat no matter how bad the choices are. That will ensure each side will get approximately 40% of the vote with the independents deciding things.The real point is Juan McCain is a terrible candidate for President and this election cycle should be a runway for the Democrat with President Bush lowest rating of 14%. This should be a slam-dunk for the Democrats and Obama.
But what you are finding is that Sen. Obama can’t put the coup de vile to McCain, no matter how messes up’ed McCain run his campaign.
The second reason why the polls are still close is that McCain was the only legitimate Republican candidate that actually does a good job courting Independents. He's attractive to Independents for the same reasons you conservatives hate him (but will still vote for him). He's not a pawn of the religious right, he's somewhat pro environment, he doesn't come off as bigoted and racist on the social issues like most Republicans do and probably most important, he's been a thorn in the side of the Bush Republicans for most of recent history.
The fact of the matter is that although you conservatives dislike McCain, he's the only Republican candidate that would have been able to keep this thing close. During the primaries, he was clearly my favorite of the Republican candidates and for the same reason he was the one I feared the most.
That's not to say I think McCain will win. However, all this is clearly enough to keep it a 5 point race all the way to the end.
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